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Susan Cui

Canadian house prices continue to rise, although April sales down - 6 views

  • Canadian home prices continued their upward march in April, driven by strong investor demand in Vancouver, while cracks in the Toronto condominium market may be starting to appear.
  • The Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday the average price of a home sold in April across the country was $372,544, up eight per cent from a year ago.
  • but the Ottawa-based group cautioned that the figure was skewed due to "surging multimillion dollar property sales in selected areas of Greater Vancouver."
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  • slow April sales figures
  • saw activity dip 4.4 per cent from March
  • The slow sales are said to have been driven by new mortgage rules which came into affect April 19 and made it tougher to borrow.
  • Changes to mortgage regulations that took effect in April 2011 likely sidelined a number of first-time homebuyers. By contrast, higher end homes sales in Greater Vancouver and Toronto had their best April ever.
  • more than 50 per cent of condominiums sold in the past year were purchased by buyers who do not intend to occupy their units and plan to rent in many instances.
  • People are buying these for capital appreciation.
  • Don Lawby, chief executive of Century 21 Canada, says the housing market has been affected by foreign investors who have reacted to tougher tax rules in their home country by investing abroad.
  • They are not afraid to offer above price and they are not afraid to get into a bidding war
  • Nevertheless, Lawby says
  • these investors
  • are small and the impact on the larger market minimal.
  • while April numbers present a market with falling sales and rising prices,
  • market conditions were exaggerated by some one-time issues.
Maria Li

House prices fall sharply in May - Hometrack | Reuters - 0 views

  • House prices in England and Wales dropped at their fastest annual pace in over 1-1/2 years in May as demand fell for the first time since January
  • Property research company Hometrack said prices were 3.7 percent lower in May compared with a year ago, the biggest decline since October 2009.
  • Economists expect high inflation, weak wage growth, tax rises and public spending cuts to weigh on consumer spending and house prices this year, despite record low interest rates.
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  • The GfK NOP measure showed its biggest rise in almost 20 years in May, although analysts said it may have received a temporary boost from unusually fine weather, the royal wedding and a run of public holidays.
  • The Hometrack survey showed that the number of new buyers registered with estate agents fell by 0.5 percent in May, the first decline since January.
  • The number of sales agreed rose by 1.6 percent in May, lower than the 8 percent jump seen in April and March's 12.6 percent rise.
  • London continued to buck the national trend, with prices up by 0.2 percent on the month.
  • "With concern over household finances and the wider economic outlook, demand for housing is likely to continue to post further modest declines over the summer,"
Susan Cui

Bad housing advice of the day, Philly edition | Felix Salmon - 4 views

  • house prices are falling, gold prices are rising, and therefore before you go ahead and buy a house, you should probably consider whether you’d be better off buying gold instead.
  • house prices are falling, gold prices are rising, and therefore before you go ahead and buy a house, you should probably consider whether you’d be better off buying gold instead.
  • homes are not an investment, they’re more of a consumption good.
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  • Maybe you’ve saved enough for a down payment. But should you bet your money on home prices, even with a tempting low-interest, fixed-rate mortgage? Or is it financially smarter to continue renting and invest the money in an asset that could appreciate for at least another few years?
  • Being “financially smart” is not the same as investing in whichever asset gives you the highest return over some given time horizon.
  • Essentially, Arvedlund is proposing an exotic relative-value trade here: she’s saying that houses will underperform gold, or that the price of a house in gold is going to go down rather than up.
  • the price of a house in gold has gone down, and you would have been financially better off buying gold than taking that money and using it as a down-payment for a house.
Carolyne Wang

Is income inequality just business as usual? - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

    • Carolyne Wang
       
      The visuals in this link show the distribution of wealth among the highest income earners in Canada.
  • Professor Richard Wilkinson just finished a tour of Canada, discussing his research findings from the past 30 years or so. A social epidemiologist, he has gathered international data showing the very tight correlation between life expectancy and income inequality, between literacy and income inequality, between rates of incarceration and income inequality, etc. etc. Over and over again he shows a range of issues that have a strong social gradient which reveal that almost everybody is better off in a society with greater income equality, including the rich. You can see his presentation in Vancouver at this link. http://i.sfu.ca/TmyYCh
  • For most of the 20th century inequality in Canada - and in virtually all developed nations, actually - had been declining. By the 1980s that long term trend reversed. First because of recessions (where the bottom end of the spectrum lost ground) then because of rowth (when the top part of the income spectrum zoomed ahead). So for the past generation inequality has grown in Canada, in good times and bad.
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  • There are two reasons for hope. One is, oddly, the result of an aging population and the consequent shrinking pool of workers, which may push up wages for workers producing basic goods and services, not just those at the top of the skill spectrum. The other is a culture shift, where a growing number of boomers understand what is at play and start working with others to come up with ways to ensure there will be a resilient middle class for the next generation.
  • When the cost of something goes up, we tend to consume less of it. So, since living wages are higher than minimum wages, employers are likely to hire fewer workers. A living wage campaign is part of the effort to raise the visibility of a sorry development in Canada. The saying that "the best social policy is a job" is in many ways true; but a new reality has developed over the past decade or so - that you can't necessarily escape poverty by working. Working full-time full-year at a minimum wage job, as many adults do, condems you to poverty.
  • international statistics show that poverty rates are lowest where income inequality is lowest too. That can be because of culture -- the wage spectrum is compressed, as in Japan, where it is unseemly to get too far ahead of others in pay -- or through active redistribution programs, where taxes and the services they buy redistribute incomes and opportunities to try to level the playing field a bit more.
  • The Mincome experiment in Manitoba in the mid 1970s, the MacDonald Commission i n the mid 1980s, and the House Report from Newfoundland and Labrador in the early 1990s all had proposals for providing a basic income. Only Manitoba tried it, as a pilot project, for a few years. The problem with the guaranteed income idea is at what rate you set it, and at what rate you tax it back. It could remove the stigma of income support programs, but it could just as easily be a costly experiment that, essentially, guarantees poverty. Also, as Dr. Wilkinson has suggested, at some point on the GDP per capita curve, income inequality is no longer about material deprivation, but rather one of psycho-social responses. We are, after all, pack animals.
  • We can redress some of the vagaries of the market through public policies, but the root cause of growing inequality is how different peoples' work is valued. IN a slow growth environment, which seems to be the foreseeable future for Canada, it will become harder and harder for those at the top of corporate structures to take the types of increases they have been commanding in the marketplace and expect unionized workers to be happy about losing their pension, benefits and wage increases, and expect low-end workers to essentially stay put or lose more ground. Two things can happen - those at the top start moderating their increases; or those in the middle and the bottom start seeing solid increases, particularly as the wave of retirements starts accelerating. The problem with rising incomes, generally, is that usually goes along with rising prices; and we're about to host the largest cohort of retirees we've ever had in history, a group that lives on fixed and low incomes, to whom rising prices are toxic. So how will the highest priced workers get away witih demanding more in that context I wonder?
  • Historically, increasing economic growth first deliver rising inequality, then lowering inequality (Simon Kuznets' famous work back in the 1950s). That's still true of developing nations - economic growth is first badly distributed, then leads to demands for greater equality.
  • We can raise our kids more equitably - but it will take more taxes. We can have less of a winner take all society - but it will require some people at the top to trim their expectations. We can beat this in small ways, but we also need leaders to express the way forward. In the US they have Warren Buffett, Bill Gates and politicians leading the way. We're waiting for more people like Ed Clarke, the CEO of TD Bank, to weigh in on how to make Canada fairer (his suggestion is higher taxes on the rich).
Dmitri Tkachenko

Loonie rises as greenback slips back - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

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    "The Canadian dollar gained 0.14 of a cent to $1.0232 (U.S.).The Canadian currency has drifted lower for the past four weeks, partly on signs of further weakness in the U.S. economy. Data from the U.S. Commerce Department, released Thursday, showed that the economy grew at a tepid annual rate of 1.8 per cent in the first quarter, lower than many economists expected. Higher prices for gasoline and weak consumer spending have held back the economy. The Labour Department also said more people applied for unemployment benefits last week. On Friday, the Commerce Department said that both personal income and spending rose 0.4 per cent in April, in line with what economists expected. But the rise in spending was the smallest in three months. Another report showed that the number of people who signed contracts to buy homes in April plunged 26.5 per cent from a year earlier."
Peter Shishkov

Food, oil prices hit US economy - 0 views

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    Economists have cut forecasts for economic growth in the second quarter following the dismal 1.8 percent pace in the first, with indicators of industrial production, consumer spending and unemployment all appearing soft. Economists said they still foresee a stronger second half, as consumers and businesses adjust to the higher oil price Ian Shepherdson, U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, said the sharp rise in the price of oil has helped stifle job creation. "The trend in claims has nudged up a bit as companies have responded to the rise in oil prices," he said.
Molly Fraser

Wikileaks: Saudis Warned About Oil Speculators in 2007 and 2008 - 2 views

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    Kevin Hall of McClatchy wrote about Wikileaks releases showing that the Saudis were concerned about oil market speculation leading to unduly high prices in 2007 and 2008. In 2008, we wrote that the Saudis said they did not see tightness in the market, and they also warned that prices were excessive.
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    It was quite frustrating in 2008 to see economics commentators reject statements by numerous oil market participants that supplies were more than adequate, that the price rise was driven by speculators.
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    The wikileaks releases confirm the fact that the Saudis were not attempting to shift the blame to speculators while privately enjoying profit, but were genuinely concerned over the effect that speculators had on spiking market prices. 2007/2008 saw a jump in oil prices that was unprecedented at the time; in 2007 alone, the price of oil was $58.74/Bbl in February, reaching $65.08/Bbl by June of the same year.
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    Ultimately this merely reaffirms anxieties that oil prices are likely at the whim of speculators rather than actual market availability. Unfortunately, markets are partially based on faith in one's investments; It would be wise in the future to trust the Saudi reports and take into consideration that everyone in the worldwide oil market- including western businesses- are in it for the money.
Linda Lei

Stats Canada discusses household debt | The Economic Analyst - 1 views

  • Recent research suggests that if interest rates rise by three percentage points, the debt-to-income ratio needs to fall to between 125% and 130% for interest payments on the debt to remain the same
  • Interestingly, note the rise in mortgage debt which started in 2003.  This is the year that the price ceilings were removed by CMHC, meaning that CMHC would insure any mortgage no matter how high.  This, combined with a loosening in down payment requirements, is quite likely the largest driver in house price increase and debt expansion.  Some economists in Calgary recently calculated that the changes in CMHC insurance requirements have been responsible for 40-70 percent of all house price increases since 2004.
Steven Iarusci

Ottawa resale market to cool in 2011; sales to fall 8%: CMHC - Residential - Real Estat... - 0 views

  • local sales of existing homes listed on the Multiple Listing Service are anticipated to fall to an estimated 13,750 units from 14,923 in 2010, a 7.9-per-cent drop, before picking up again to approximately 14,100 units in 2012.
  • Higher anticipated mortgage rates have resulted in a pull-forward effect on housing demand
  • sales were higher in late 2010 and early 2011 as buyers rushed to avoid rising interest rates and new mortgage rule changes
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  • still at historic lows, moderate raises in mortgage rates will impact carrying costs negatively, thus slightly subduing housing demand
  • Average resale prices are expected to rise by a brisk 11.5 per cent to $340,000 this year, but the growth rate will slow significantly in 2012, to 2.9 per cent
  • that segment falling 20.1 per cent to 1,975 units
  • 5,950 total housing starts forecast for 2011, up 2.3 per cent from the previous year
  • single-detached market is anticipated to be the hardest-hit
  • New home construction is also expected to cool down this year
  • result of an ongoing shift towards more affordable housing types
  • first-time homebuyers and downsizing empty-nesters at the forefront of Ottawa's housing market
  • raising the popularity of more affordable housing types such as condominium apartments, townhouses and semi-detached homes
  • soaring gas prices and lengthening commute times will push up interest in homes in the core
  • Elsewhere in the country
  • MLS sales, meanwhile, are expected to be between 429,500 and 480,000 units, with 2012 sales anticipated to be in the range of 410,000 to 511,900 units
  • slowdown affecting both single-detached homes and multi-family housing
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    A few numbers pertaining to supply of housing in the Ottawa market. Talks a little of why demand is changing in the market.
Peter Shishkov

Commodity prices rise amid economic turbulence - 0 views

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    Lately, oil price is extremely volatile due to disappointing economic data from the US and eurozone, uncertainty about a potential debt-restructure in Greece and weaker oil demand from the US, China and Japan. Gasoline demand is expected however to pick up in the coming weeks as Americans take to the road for their summer holidays. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) or light sweet crude for July climbed to $100.35 a barrel from $97.41. Gold and Silver remain to be the safest investments during problematic economic times. As a result the precious metals have increased in price: on the London Bullion Market, gold jumped to $1,533 an ounce from $1,491 the previous week; Silver rose to $37.69 an ounce from $34.80.
Linda Lei

A warning for Canadian consumers, household debt could spark 'made in Canada' recession... - 1 views

  • “One scenario is that interest rates rise, house prices drop, and more people begin defaulting on their credit card debt and mortgage obligations. An equally worrying – and perhaps more likely scenario – is that interest rates go up a little, and more of people’s disposable income goes to repaying their debt, leading to a significant reduction in consumer spending. Since personal spending on consumer goods and services accounts for 58 per cent of the Canadian gross domestic product, this decrease would provoke a ‘made in Canada’ recession.”
  • Total household debt in Canada now tops $1.5-trillion, or three times the national debt, MIT said in a statement outlining the paper by Mr. Dunfield and his colleagues in the Action Canada fellowship. That means that while Mr. Flaherty is being fiscally responsible, many of us may not be following suit.
  • “Canada has also avoided the wide regional performance differences seen in the U.S., where states such as Nevada, California and Florida suffered significantly larger declines than the nation overall,” Mr. Goldin added. “In Canada, house prices in Calgary and Vancouver fell further than those across the nation, but the variance was relatively minor by comparison
alex yesikov

Collapsing Political Support Threatens Euro; Systemic Risk Threatens World Markets - Se... - 0 views

  • Per a Reuters article Wednesday, EU banks are stuck with over 100 bln euros of Greek government debt they’re unable to sell, hedge or ignore. However the ECB is in the same situation, and holds so much Greek debt that a default would mean the ECB would need a bailout.
  • Thus the banks, at least the big ones, can do nothing but hope that when the default comes, be it full or partial, they will be bailout out along with the ECB as an unavoidable step to maintaining economic stability in the EU.
  • No one wants to buy the bonds even at record low prices, and insuring the debt is too expensive to be worthwhile.
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  • That will mean, one way or another: Lots of money printing, a falling EUR and thus likely a rising USD
Benjamin Gray

Canadians take Carney's debt warning to heart - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

  • At the time, the average household debt level including mortgages had reached a record 146 per cent of personal disposable income.
  • Ottawa also moved to lower the amount Canadians borrow against their home, reducing the amount homeowners can leverage in a mortgage refinancing to 85 per cent of the property’s value, from 90 per cent.
  • Even though Canada’s economic downturn was shorter and less brutal than in many countries, rising debt could be a problem in a future downturn, particularly if housing prices are hit.
Steven Iarusci

The Canadian Press: Canadian borrowing grows 4.5 per cent in first quarter from year ago - 0 views

  • Canadians' average non-mortgage debt grew 4.5 per cent to $25,597 in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, signalling that consumers aren't necessarily clamping down on borrowing even as they rein in spending.
  • Total debt per consumer, including credit cards, car loans and lines of credit but excluding mortgages, was up from $24,497 in the same quarter of 2010,
  • most in Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador, with debt rising by 7.8 per cent in both provinces, while British Columbians had the highest average consumer debt at $36,649
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  • consumer debt rose in all provinces
  • the trend still remains modest compared to the double-digit, pre-recession levels
  • Average credit card debt
  • sign of troubled credit health, the national credit card delinquency rate — the ratio of credit card accounts that are 90 days or more overdue — grew 11 per cent from the first quarter of 2010.
  • average borrower debt on auto loans was also up in the quarter — by 12.4 per cent to $16,189 from $14,402 in the first quarter of 2010
  • Lines of credit are the most popular form of consumer debt
  • more than 41 per cent of outstanding debt at the end of the first quarter
  • consumers should take care to rein in their borrowing
  • consumer spending slowed during the first quarter, to just 0.1 per cent growth
  • consumers are focused on consolidating debt after borrowing heavily during the recession
  • higher energy and particularly gasoline prices are taking a bigger bite out of household budgets, leaving less for other forms of expenditures
  • high levels of indebtedness are expected to weigh down purchases going forward
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